Growing Influence of China in the Middle East
An Inevitable Change in the American-Led Unipolar World Order
China had not been deeply involved in the Middle East until the second half of the twentieth century, when Deng Xiaoping launched his modernization programme and Beijing increasingly turned towards a region capable of supplying vast quantities of oil and gas.
This growing economic necessity brought China closer to the Middle Eastern states and eventually resulted in diplomatic relations with all Arab countries by the end of 1993.
With the beginning of the new millennium, China’s engagement expanded rapidly. Beijing began importing a major share of its energy requirements from the Middle East while simultaneously increasing exports, investments, infrastructure development and technology cooperation across the region.
China consequently emerged as an important economic partner for several Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. China needed energy to sustain its rapid industrial growth, while the Gulf economies needed export revenues, investment and infrastructure to support their economic diversification programmes.
Unlike traditional Western powers, China has generally attempted to avoid direct involvement in regional political conflicts. This policy has enabled Beijing to maintain relationships with competing regional powers, including both Iran and the Gulf states.
China’s expanding economic presence, however, means that regional stability is becoming increasingly important for protecting its investments and trade routes.
China-Arab Cooperation
In 2004, Beijing initiated negotiations for a free trade arrangement with the Gulf states and established the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum.
Although the proposed free trade arrangement remained incomplete, the cooperation forum developed into an important diplomatic mechanism through which China and Arab states regularly review cooperation and formulate new objectives.
This institutional engagement demonstrates how China’s Middle Eastern policy has gradually evolved beyond bilateral trade towards broader diplomatic and strategic cooperation.
2022: A Year of Flourishing Cooperation
The year 2022 witnessed extensive diplomatic interaction between China and Middle Eastern countries.
Foreign ministers from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia visited Beijing in January 2022. The UAE also maintained high-level diplomatic contact with China, while Türkiye sought stronger economic cooperation.
Iran similarly attempted to accelerate implementation of its long-term strategic and economic partnership with Beijing.
These developments reflected China’s increasingly broad relationships with states across the political spectrum of the Middle East.
Strategic Cooperation Agreements
China developed strategic cooperation agreements with several important regional states, including:
Algeria
Egypt
Iran
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Beijing nevertheless remained cautious regarding the extent of its strategic cooperation with Iran because of the possibility of creating greater confrontation with the United States.
China’s regional approach therefore combines expanding strategic partnerships with a continuing effort to avoid direct geopolitical confrontation.
Expanding Trade and Investment with Arab Countries
Economic engagement remains the foundation of China’s Middle Eastern influence.
At a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo in March 2022, participating states expressed support for expanding cooperation with Beijing.
According to the material presented, trade between China and Arab countries reached approximately $330 billion in 2021, excluding many investments associated with infrastructure, technology and the Belt and Road Initiative.
Trade involving Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates accounted for a particularly large proportion of this relationship.
The scale of these commercial ties has made China increasingly difficult to separate from the economic future of the Gulf.
Development of Port Infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates occupy strategic positions along maritime routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe.
Both countries have consequently invested heavily in port infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia has upgraded important facilities at Dammam and Jeddah as part of its wider economic diversification strategy. These ports can strengthen the kingdom’s position as a logistics and transportation hub connecting the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
The UAE has similarly developed major logistics centres associated with ports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
These developments complement China’s Belt and Road Initiative by creating infrastructure through which Chinese goods can move towards Middle Eastern, African and European markets.
Chinese involvement also includes plans and investments connected with industrial parks, logistics facilities and free trade zones.
Saudi Arabia: A Major Chinese Partner
Saudi Arabia occupies a particularly important position in China’s Middle Eastern strategy because of its energy resources, economic influence and regional importance.
Formal diplomatic relations between Beijing and Riyadh were established in 1990, although bilateral cooperation had already begun developing earlier.
Relations subsequently expanded into infrastructure, defence, energy and technology.
China participated in the construction of the Mecca monorail system, while the two countries also concluded cooperation agreements involving peaceful nuclear energy.
China has additionally supported Saudi economic diversification initiatives and participated in numerous development projects.
Energy remains central to the relationship. Saudi Arabia is one of China’s most important oil suppliers, while China represents an enormous market for Saudi energy exports.
Discussions about the possible use of the renminbi in oil transactions have also highlighted the broader geopolitical implications of deepening Sino-Saudi economic cooperation.
Nevertheless, the United States remains an important strategic and security partner for Saudi Arabia.
China and the Restoration of Saudi-Iran Relations
One of the most visible demonstrations of China’s growing diplomatic role came in March 2023, when Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the restoration of diplomatic relations following negotiations hosted in Beijing.
The agreement provided for the reopening of diplomatic missions and the revival of cooperation in areas including security, trade and investment.
China was able to facilitate the negotiations partly because it maintained working relationships with both Riyadh and Tehran.
Its substantial economic interests and energy relations with both countries also gave Beijing an unusual position from which to encourage dialogue.
The agreement illustrated China’s growing ability to complement its economic presence with diplomatic influence in the Gulf.
The UAE, Infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative
The United Arab Emirates has also developed extensive infrastructure compatible with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Abu Dhabi Ports and Dubai-based logistics operators have cooperated with Chinese firms, while port networks stretching towards the Suez Canal have increased the strategic importance of Gulf infrastructure.
Projects associated with locations such as Ain Sokhna in Egypt and Duqm in Oman demonstrate how maritime and industrial infrastructure is connecting Gulf economies to wider Chinese trade networks.
Through these initiatives, the maritime component of the Belt and Road Initiative has become an important instrument for facilitating Chinese commerce between Asia, Africa and Europe.
Chinese Investment in Gulf Ports
Chinese investment in ports and infrastructure across the Gulf has created mutual economic advantages.
For Beijing, these projects provide important commercial routes linking Chinese production with European and African markets.
For Gulf states, Chinese investment supports economic diversification while generating logistics and transit revenues.
At the same time, deepening financial relationships can create risks where infrastructure development depends heavily on external borrowing.
China has therefore strengthened its regional economic position without, so far, directly replacing the United States as the Middle East’s principal security power.
Impact of COVID-19 and the Ukraine Crisis
China-Middle East cooperation has developed amid considerable global economic uncertainty.
The COVID-19 pandemic weakened global demand and disrupted supply chains, while the Russia-Ukraine war contributed to higher commodity prices and transportation costs.
Such developments demonstrated the vulnerability of global trade networks upon which both China and Middle Eastern economies depend.
Nevertheless, structural factors — particularly energy demand, infrastructure requirements and trade connectivity — continue to provide strong incentives for sustained cooperation.
China and the Reconstruction of Syria
China has also shown interest in Syria’s post-war reconstruction.
Its extensive experience in constructing ports, highways, railways and other infrastructure gives Chinese companies significant potential in any large-scale reconstruction programme.
In January 2022, a memorandum concerning Syria’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative was signed.
Chinese involvement in Syria also illustrates how Beijing’s economic diplomacy can extend into politically contested environments where Western governments may remain reluctant to participate.
China’s Investment in Iraq
Iraq represents another significant component of China’s Middle Eastern energy strategy.
According to the supplied material, China invested approximately $10.5 billion in 2021 in BRI-related and energy projects in Iraq.
Iraq’s importance is reinforced by its position as a major supplier of oil to China.
The relationship demonstrates how China’s regional strategy often combines energy security with infrastructure investment.
China and Egypt
Egypt occupies a strategically important location because of the Suez Canal and its geographical connection between Africa, Asia and the Mediterranean.
China and Egypt have consequently expanded economic cooperation.
In 2018, the two countries signed several agreements covering major investment projects.
Chinese companies have been involved in infrastructure associated with Egypt’s new administrative capital as well as development initiatives within the Suez Canal Economic Zone.
Egypt’s location makes it a natural component of the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s wider trade strategy.
Multilateral Forums as Chinese Foreign-Policy Instruments
China increasingly supplements bilateral relations with multilateral diplomatic forums.
The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), created in 2000, provides Beijing with a platform for political, economic and security engagement with African states, including countries in North Africa.
Similarly, the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF), established in 2004, enables institutional interaction between China and members of the League of Arab States.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has also developed growing links with Middle Eastern countries.
The expansion of such forums demonstrates Beijing’s preference for institutional diplomacy alongside trade, investment and infrastructure cooperation.
China and the United States in the Middle East
China’s growing role in the Middle East does not necessarily mean that Beijing seeks direct confrontation with Washington.
China has generally attempted to avoid becoming deeply involved in regional military conflicts while focusing on economics, infrastructure and diplomacy.
The United States continues to maintain extensive security partnerships and military capabilities throughout the Middle East.
China, by contrast, has primarily emphasized commercial relations and strategic connectivity.
The resulting regional order therefore increasingly contains different forms of influence: the United States remains deeply embedded in regional security, while China’s economic and diplomatic presence continues to expand.
The broader US-China strategic rivalry nevertheless creates the possibility that Middle Eastern states may increasingly seek to balance relationships between the two major powers.
Conclusion
China has gradually built extensive political, economic and strategic relations across the Middle East.
Its influence has expanded through trade, foreign direct investment, infrastructure development, energy cooperation, the Belt and Road Initiative and multilateral diplomacy.
China has also established strategic partnerships with numerous Middle Eastern states and integrated many Arab countries into the BRI.
However, China’s rise does not necessarily amount to the immediate displacement of the United States.
Washington continues to play a central regional security role, whereas Beijing’s strongest influence remains rooted in economics, trade, infrastructure and diplomatic engagement.
As China’s interests continue to grow and Middle Eastern governments seek greater strategic autonomy and economic diversification, relations with Beijing are likely to remain an increasingly important element of the region’s evolving geopolitical order.
