Written by: Mr. Naveed Afzal
Introduction
The relationship between China and Russia has undergone a major transformation in recent years. Their growing cooperation is largely driven by a shared ambition to challenge the United States-dominated international order and reshape the global balance of power.
As the two countries marked 75 years of diplomatic relations in 2024, their partnership continued to expand across military, economic and diplomatic fields.
Despite a history of disagreements and mistrust, China and Russia have significantly strengthened their ties since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Their present partnership is largely based on common opposition to the United States and its allies.
During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China following his re-election, both countries criticized US foreign policy and accused Washington of continuing to operate through a Cold War mindset and bloc-based confrontation.
The visit highlighted the growing divisions within the US-led liberal international order. Combined with America’s domestic and international challenges, the expanding China-Russia partnership suggests that the world may be moving towards a more multipolar system.
The United States and Major Challenges to Its Hegemony
The liberal international order emerged after the Second World War, with the United States assuming a central leadership role.
According to the liberal school of thought, this system was based on several important principles:
- Economic openness
- Multilateral institutions
- International security cooperation
- Democratic solidarity
- Rules-based global governance
Major pillars of this order included the establishment of the World Trade Organization, the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization became the leading collective security structure, while the US dollar emerged as the world’s primary reserve currency.
These institutions and arrangements provided the foundation for American leadership in the international system.
The Cold War and Bipolar World Order
During the Cold War, America’s freedom of action was limited by the bipolar structure of the international system.
The balance of power between the United States and the Soviet Union created a degree of stability. The threat of mutually assured destruction discouraged both powers from engaging in direct military confrontation.
However, the collapse of the Soviet Union brought the Cold War to an end and strengthened the United States’ position as the world’s dominant power.
From the end of the Cold War until around 2016, the international order was largely characterized by unipolarity.
The United States and its Western allies exercised substantial influence over global political, military and economic affairs.
Under doctrines such as the Responsibility to Protect, Western countries frequently intervened in the internal affairs of other states while claiming a responsibility to prevent human rights violations and preserve international stability.
The Rise of a Multipolar World
Since 2016, the global order has increasingly been described as multipolar.
Emerging powers such as China and Russia, along with other influential states, have challenged American dominance in economic, military and diplomatic fields.
Political theorist John Mearsheimer has argued that these developments indicate a transition from US global hegemony towards a more competitive international system.
The growing influence of China, Russia and other regional powers is gradually reducing the ability of the United States to shape global affairs without resistance.
China’s Global Rise: From Economic Giant to Diplomatic Powerhouse
China’s rise as a global power has been driven by rapid economic growth, industrial development, technological advancement and the strategic use of soft power.
Dr. Talat Ayesha Wizarat, in her book Belt and Road Initiative: Emerging World Order, argues that China may surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy between 2030 and 2035.
This transition could occur even earlier if the Belt and Road Initiative continues to expand successfully.
The Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative is a central component of China’s global strategy.
It aims to increase economic development, trade and connectivity through large infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, Europe and other regions.
Projects such as Gwadar Port under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor demonstrate the strategic and economic importance of this initiative.
China’s network of ports across the Indian Ocean is often described by Western analysts as the “String of Pearls.”
This growing network has raised concerns about China’s expanding economic and strategic influence in the region.
Analysts such as Robert D. Kaplan have suggested that China’s increasing presence could significantly alter the balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
Technology and Renewable Energy Leadership
China’s influence extends beyond infrastructure and international trade.
It has developed a strong position in:
- Semiconductor production
- Renewable energy
- Artificial intelligence
- Science and technology education
- Manufacturing
- Digital infrastructure
China’s investments in artificial intelligence and STEM education have further strengthened its global position.
Its leadership in renewable energy production has also helped it become an important player in the global transition towards cleaner energy.
Military Development
China’s economic growth has enabled it to significantly increase defence spending.
It currently ranks second only to the United States in military expenditure.
China has also developed a strong naval presence in the South China Sea, partly to counter American influence and protect its strategic interests.
China’s Growing Diplomatic Influence
China has increasingly presented itself as a diplomatic power, particularly in the Middle East.
Its successful role in facilitating the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrated its growing diplomatic importance.
China has also attempted to facilitate dialogue among Palestinian groups.
These initiatives reflect China’s preference for diplomacy, economic engagement and soft power, in contrast with the United States’ greater reliance on military influence and hard power.
Russia’s Resurgence: Economic Recovery and Global Ambitions
Russia’s return as a major international power following the collapse of the Soviet Union has been shaped by economic recovery, strategic ambition and an increasingly assertive foreign policy.
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia used its vast energy resources to stabilize and expand its economy after the political and economic difficulties of the 1990s.
Higher oil and gas prices played an important role in strengthening the Russian economy and supporting a more assertive international strategy.
Russia’s Assertive Foreign Policy
After the September 11 attacks, American attention shifted towards Afghanistan and the wider War on Terror.
This changing environment gave Russia greater space to pursue its regional interests.
Russia’s military and political actions in Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine reflected its determination to defend what it considered its strategic sphere of influence.
John Mearsheimer has argued that the conflict in Ukraine was influenced significantly by the eastward expansion of NATO.
Russia repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO would be viewed as a threat to its sovereignty and national security.
The possibility of Ukrainian membership became one of the central sources of tension between Russia and Western powers.
Russia’s Role in the Middle East
Russia has also emerged as an important power in the Middle East, particularly through its military and political involvement in Syria.
As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Russia continues to challenge US policies and influence major international decisions.
Its military modernization, strategic partnerships and assertive foreign policy demonstrate its determination to regain the status of a major global power.
The United States, however, views many of Russia’s actions as a direct challenge to the liberal international order.
The China-Russia Axis: Strategy and Geopolitical Cooperation
The relationship between China and Russia has evolved considerably since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
It has developed into a complex partnership characterized by cooperation, strategic dependence and limited rivalry.
The alignment between the two countries became particularly strong after 2014, when Western states imposed sanctions on Russia following its actions in Ukraine.
Mutual opposition to US dominance encouraged China and Russia to increase their military, economic and diplomatic cooperation.
The “No Limits” Partnership
China and Russia have described their relationship as a “no limits” partnership.
However, despite extensive cooperation, it does not operate as a formal military alliance or mutual defence agreement.
The partnership is based primarily on:
- Opposition to perceived US dominance
- Resistance to Western sanctions
- Economic cooperation
- Energy security
- Military coordination
- Diplomatic cooperation in international institutions
The personal relationship between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin has further strengthened this partnership.
The two leaders have held frequent high-level meetings, reflecting a considerable degree of political trust.
Military and Technological Cooperation
Despite its growing military power, China continues to depend on some Russian military technologies.
This dependence is particularly visible in the aerospace sector, where a significant portion of China’s air force continues to use Russian-made fighter engines.
Since 2014, China has gained greater access to advanced Russian military technology.
At the same time, Russia has become increasingly dependent on Chinese technology, particularly semiconductors.
Western sanctions have restricted Russia’s access to advanced computer chips, making China its primary supplier.
In the first half of 2023, China reportedly supplied approximately 88% of Russia’s semiconductor imports.
This reflects Russia’s growing technological dependence on China.
Expanding Bilateral Trade
Trade between China and Russia reached a record level of approximately $240 billion in 2023.
Chinese exports to Russia included consumer products, industrial goods, dual-use technologies and components that could support military production.
Trade between the two countries increased by approximately 170% over the previous decade.
A growing proportion of bilateral trade is now conducted in Chinese yuan and Russian roubles rather than the US dollar.
This shift forms part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on Western financial systems and weaken the international influence of the dollar.
Energy Cooperation
China depends heavily on Russian oil and natural gas to support its energy security.
Russia has become one of China’s largest suppliers of crude oil and natural gas.
However, China continues to diversify its energy sources to avoid excessive dependence on a single supplier.
Its diversification strategy includes:
- Renewable energy investment
- Liquefied natural gas imports from Australia
- Energy imports from Qatar
- Central Asian energy supplies
- Domestic energy production
Russia, on the other hand, has become increasingly dependent on China as Western markets and technologies have become less accessible.
Cooperation Through BRICS and the SCO
China and Russia have strengthened their cooperation through multilateral organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
These platforms allow them to promote an alternative vision of international politics and challenge institutions dominated by Western countries.
The two nations have also issued joint statements criticizing organizations and alliances such as:
- NATO
- AUKUS
- QUAD
They argue that these alliances promote bloc-based confrontation and undermine regional stability.
Redrawing Global Lines: Washington’s Struggle to Maintain Dominance
The expanding China-Russia relationship represents a major challenge to US influence and the existing global order.
The partnership has strengthened significantly since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the resulting Western sanctions.
Greater military, economic and diplomatic cooperation between China and Russia could shift the balance of power, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
Russia’s increasing reliance on Chinese markets for energy exports has also given Beijing greater influence over Moscow.
External and Internal Challenges for the United States
America’s declining influence is not caused only by the rise of China and Russia.
Several controversial American policies have also weakened its international reputation.
These include:
- The invasion of Iraq
- The withdrawal from Afghanistan
- Trade wars with China
- Protectionist economic policies
- Withdrawal from important multilateral agreements
- The “America First” approach
- Unconditional support for Israel during the Gaza conflict
These actions have damaged America’s credibility in many parts of the world.
Containment strategies such as QUAD and AUKUS have also increased tensions with China.
As Washington struggles with external challenges and self-inflicted policy failures, regional powers are gaining greater space to increase their influence.
This changing environment is encouraging a reassessment of American foreign policy and the future of the liberal international order.
Navigating the Limits of the China-Russia Partnership
Despite their deepening relationship, significant limitations remain within the China-Russia partnership.
Although bilateral trade reached a historic level in 2023, China remains cautious about providing direct military support to Russia.
Beijing is concerned that direct military assistance could result in Western sanctions against Chinese companies and financial institutions.
This caution is also reflected in the gradual withdrawal of some Chinese banks from transactions involving Russia.
These developments reveal China’s cautious and sometimes ambiguous position regarding the war in Ukraine.
An Unequal Partnership
The relationship between China and Russia is increasingly unequal.
China occupies the stronger economic and technological position, while Russia has become more dependent on Beijing.
Russia relies on China for:
- Technology
- Semiconductors
- Industrial goods
- Energy markets
- Financial cooperation
- Diplomatic support
As this dependence grows, Russia’s ability to resist Chinese demands may decline.
This imbalance could allow China to exercise greater influence over Russia’s economic and strategic decisions.
The Emergence of an Anti-Western Axis
Despite these limitations, the partnership remains a major challenge for the United States.
China and Russia share a common interest in reducing Western influence and reshaping the international system.
Their cooperation has contributed to the emergence of a wider anti-Western alignment that also includes Iran.
These countries increasingly coordinate their positions within international organizations and oppose US-led policies.
The Future of China-Russia Relations
The personal relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is likely to continue driving high-level cooperation.
China and Russia are expected to improve coordination within:
- The United Nations
- BRICS
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization
- Other regional and international forums
Economic cooperation is also likely to expand, with Russia becoming increasingly dependent on China for critical technologies and access to international markets.
However, historical mistrust and differences in national interests will continue to limit the partnership.
China’s policy of non-interference, combined with its focus on protecting its own strategic interests, will shape its future approach towards Russia.
The direction of the partnership will depend on changing global power structures, developments in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the response of the United States.
Conclusion
The China-Russia partnership represents one of the most important geopolitical developments of the 21st century.
It is driven by common opposition to US dominance, expanding economic cooperation, energy interdependence, military coordination and shared participation in organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
China’s economic and technological rise, combined with Russia’s military power and natural resources, has created a partnership capable of challenging important aspects of the US-led international order.
However, the relationship is not a formal alliance and remains affected by historical mistrust, unequal economic power and differing national interests.
China is increasingly the dominant partner, while Russia depends heavily on Chinese markets, technology and diplomatic support.
Despite these limitations, the partnership is likely to continue growing as both countries seek to promote a multipolar international system.
The future global balance of power will depend on how China, Russia, the United States and other emerging powers respond to this changing geopolitical environment.