Sudan Crisis – Decoding the Conflict
Sudan’s crisis is rooted in a violent power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti. The conflict erupted in April 2023 after disagreements over the integration of the RSF into the regular army and the wider transition toward civilian rule.
The confrontation is fundamentally portrayed as a struggle for political and military power rather than an ideological conflict. Both rival military centres have resisted the transfer of authority to a democratically elected civilian government. Sudan’s long history of military intervention in politics—from repeated coups after independence to the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir and the 2021 military takeover—provides the broader context for the present crisis.
The conflict has also produced a severe humanitarian emergency, including deaths, mass displacement, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of hospitals and businesses, shortages of food and clean water, and refugee movements into neighbouring countries. The instability therefore extends beyond Sudan and threatens the wider region.
Another important dimension is the involvement of external actors. The United States has supported Sudan’s democratic transition, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Russia have developed varying strategic, economic and security interests in the country. Sudan’s agricultural potential, ports, Red Sea location and natural resources further increase its geopolitical importance.
The crisis consequently represents more than a rivalry between Burhan and Hemedti. Continued fighting threatens Sudan’s prospects for civilian democracy while creating wider risks for Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan and the broader Red Sea region. A durable settlement therefore requires political reconciliation, restraint by armed factions, regional diplomacy and a credible pathway back toward civilian governance.
