Political Fallout of Canal Controversy
Can the Cholistan Canal Solve Pakistan’s Water Crisis?
Written By: Dr. Aqsa Amjad
Canals of Contention: Centre and Punjab’s Support, Sindh’s Opposition
Like any other country, along with services and industry, agriculture is a major contributor to Pakistan’s economy. It contributes above 23% to the GDP and includes crops, livestock, fisheries, and forests.
To promote this sector, Pakistan needs to adopt new farming techniques and technologies on one hand, and revamp and develop a comprehensive irrigation system across the country on the other.
As a result, the federal government, under the Special Investment Facilitation Council, has decided to develop six new canals in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Sindh.
This initiative has been approved by the Indus River System Authority, but it is strongly opposed by the Government of Sindh.
The Cholistan water project has become a major bone of contention between Sindh and Punjab. The project intends to irrigate the desert region of South Punjab.
The federal and Punjab governments claim that no water would be taken from the Indus River system and that the canal would instead draw water from the Sutlej River.
Sindh, on the other hand, insists that no direct water is available in the Sutlej after it was diverted by India in the 1960s through the Indus Waters Treaty. Sindh also argues that the Sutlej is part of the Indus River System.
Punjab, as the upper riparian, wants to establish corporate farming in Cholistan and other parts of southern Punjab that would receive water from the Cholistan Canal.
Sindh fears that construction of the canal would result in a decline in water flows to an already water-scarce province.
Furthermore, the project could aggravate tensions between the two major federating units and between Sindh and the federal government.
The Council of Common Interests should play a constructive role in resolving the issue.
The Canal Blueprint: What Is Being Built?
The federal government aims to irrigate a total of 4.8 million acres, or 1.9 million hectares, of barren land by constructing six canals.
These include two canals each in Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab.
Five of these canals will be built on the Indus, while the sixth will be constructed along the Sutlej River to irrigate the Cholistan Desert in Punjab.
The Cholistan Canal is the largest and most critical project among the six strategic canals. It will channel water from the Indus basin to irrigate the Cholistan region.
This project was inaugurated on 15 February 2025 under the Green Pakistan Initiative, which was launched in July 2023 to address outdated farming practices and improve productivity.
According to IRSA sources, Punjab will construct the Cholistan Canal branching from the Sutlej River at Sulemanki Headworks, providing access to 450,000 acre-feet of water.
Cholistan stretches over 6,655,360 acres, which is to be developed in future.
Smaller Cholistan covers 1,996,600 acres, while Greater Cholistan comprises 4,658,760 acres.
The canal project targets a new command area in Cholistan covering 455,000 acres in Phase I.
In Phase II, 744,000 acres would be developed along with the 120-kilometre-long Marot Canal and its minors spanning over 452 kilometres.
The Cholistan Canal will draw water from Punjab’s existing Rasul-Qadirabad, Qadirabad-Balloki, and Balloki-Sulemanki link canals, collectively called the RQBS link canals.
The capacity of these canals would be enhanced as follows:
- Rasul-Qadirabad link: from 19,000 to 25,000 cusecs
- Qadirabad-Balloki link: from 22,000 to 25,000 cusecs
- Balloki-Sulemanki link: from 24,500 to 28,700 cusecs
The project is expected to be completed by mid-2030 at an estimated cost of $783 million.
Digging Deep: Why Is Punjab Building New Canals?
The Green Pakistan Initiative is a strategic effort focused on water conservation, sustainable farming, and agricultural research and development.
It aims to reduce Pakistan’s dependence on food grain imports and enhance the country’s capacity for agricultural exports.
High-efficiency irrigation systems are one of the key components of this effort.
According to government-stated reasons and justifications, Pakistan’s agricultural landscape needs to be revolutionized through corporate farming by irrigating the Cholistan desert region of South Punjab.
Punjab’s share of water would be diverted through the RQBS canal system.
Supporters hail the project as a game-changer that will transform vast desert lands into fertile farmland.
The three primary objectives for cultivating the Cholistan Desert are:
- Developing land and increasing agricultural yield
- Enhancing biodiversity
- Ensuring social impact
Sindh’s Fury: Why the Opposition Is Loud
Sindh province is the lower riparian and strongly opposes the project.
It argues that current water allocation from the Indus River system is already stretched and that further diversions would be disastrous for Sindh because water flow in the rivers has already dangerously declined.
The area to be irrigated through the Cholistan Canal would be about half of Sindh’s total command area of 13.2 million acres.
None of Sindh’s major canals has a designed discharge as large as the RQBS link canals.
Sindh’s largest canal, the Nara Canal, has a designed discharge of 13,649 cusecs, which is far less than the existing 49,500 cusecs capacity of the RQBS system.
The proposed Punjab canal project will inevitably receive more water, which Sindh fears would further reduce water flows to the province.
Moreover, the plan relies on flows from the Sutlej River, which is a tributary of the Indus and depends on surplus releases from India.
The Sutlej is virtually dry and survives through the courtesy of manually pumped water from other rivers to sustain diversion.
The federal government has reassured that no water will be diverted from Sindh’s share and that the canals would be fed from the Jhelum or Punjab’s own share of water.
However, this reassurance has been met with skepticism because there is no surplus water available from Punjab’s quota that could be spared for the Cholistan Canal project.
As a result, numerous protests have taken place in Sindh since the project was announced. Almost all political and religious parties, nationalist groups, and civil society organizations have participated.
The “Save River Indus” drive is rapidly turning into a mass movement.
It has given a huge impetus to Sindhi nationalism.
As a result, extremist nationalist forces could be strengthened, significantly affecting national integration and interprovincial harmony.
Between Drought and Division: What Is at Stake?
The ambitious project of irrigating a desert could disturb the ecological balance not only in the struggling province of Sindh but also in Punjab.
It could deprive the lower riparian region of its mandated water share, putting at risk the livelihoods of tens of thousands of people and displacing communities.
Pakistan is already facing acute water scarcity.
IRSA has consistently declared water shortages.
The average discharge downstream of Kotri has dropped from 40.69 million acre-feet between 1976 and 1998 to just 14.035 million acre-feet from 1999 to 2023.
Mangla Dam officially hit its dead level of 1,050 feet, reducing its ability to supply irrigation water to Punjab and Sindh.
The water level of Tarbela Dam is at 1,405.10 feet, dangerously close to its dead level of 1,402 feet.
Likewise, Chashma Reservoir is a mere inch away from its dead level of 638 feet, sitting at 639.20 feet.
Furthermore, from 1999 to 2024, Tarbela Dam reached full capacity for only 17 days in 25 years, while Mangla Dam filled for just four days.
Therefore, sustaining the proposed new canals is a major challenge in circumstances where even existing dams are unable to fill properly.
A project cannot be conceived as a win-win strategy for all Pakistanis when a public health disaster is waiting to unfold.
Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur face chronic water scarcity, coupled with a spike in pollution levels as drinking water becomes increasingly toxic.
According to the Water and Sanitation Agency, Hyderabad’s water carries 790 milligrams per litre of Total Dissolved Solids, exceeding the World Health Organization’s threshold of 500 milligrams per litre.
This is a result of shrinking flows in the Indus and unchecked pollution.
A survey by the United Nations Development Programme on multidimensional poverty reported that nearly 80% of people live in extreme poverty in districts such as Sujawal, Thatta, and Badin.
Their livelihoods are gone. Their health is deteriorating. There is no life for them. And now, this scheme may take away even the last drops of water they rely on.
Green Signal or Grey Zone? The Approval Controversy
Pakistan has a comprehensive constitutional mechanism for resolving water disputes among provinces, but it is hardly followed.
Water distribution in Pakistan is overseen by the Indus River System Authority, a regulatory body established in 1991 to equitably distribute Indus River water among the four provinces.
IRSA has issued a water availability certificate despite opposition from Sindh, essentially accepting that enough water is available for the Cholistan Canal.
The Sindh government accuses the federal government of failing to fully implement the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991.
It argues that the unilateral decision to build the canals is a violation of the Constitution.
The contentious water project was presented before the Council of Common Interests in 2023 and 2024. However, a final decision on the matter remains pending.
Leadership from Sindh claims that IRSA lacks the mandate to approve the canal project because it has no allocation under the 1991 Water Accord.
According to Sindh’s position, the Council of Common Interests is the forum that has exclusive jurisdiction to decide water disputes.
The Sindh Assembly has also passed a resolution rejecting the construction of six new canals on the Indus River, including the Cholistan Canal.
The resolution also opposed the Greater Thal Canal and its command area development Phase II, the Chaubara Branch Canal, Thar Canal, Rainee Canal Phase II, and Kachhi Canal.
Sindh called these projects illegal and a violation of the 1991 Water Accord, demanding an immediate halt to all plans and activities related to their construction.
Moreover, the canal initiative also violates the Sindh-Punjab Water Accord of 1945, which allocated a fixed share to Punjab while ensuring excess water flowed to Sindh.
Crisis to Consensus: How to Resolve the Conflict?
The gap between current realities and the envisioned future obstructs the dream of establishing highly productive corporate farms in Cholistan that can compete in international markets.
This gap can only be bridged through a scientifically sound, socially cohesive, financially viable, and environmentally sustainable approach.
Essential Considerations for Canal Construction
Reliable Water Supply
The success of modern corporate farms is directly linked to reliable water supply.
All other factors also depend on it.
A corporate farm requires a 24/7, year-round, drought-proof water supply of sufficient quality for high-efficiency irrigation systems.
The supply must match daily and seasonal demand variability.
It must also be cost-effective and free from bureaucratic and political disruptions.
Socio-Environmental Sustainability
The water must be pollutant-free to produce farm products that meet the standards of environmentally sensitive global markets.
Its diversion should have minimal negative social and environmental impacts.
If any proposed water supply system fails to meet this level of service, the entire initiative will lose credibility.
Recommended Measures for Sustainable Canal Development
Massive Shift in Crop Selection
There is a dire need to move away from water-intensive crops.
Cotton and sugarcane are valuable and important crops, but they are too water-intensive to be the centrepieces of the agro-economy.
For example, producing one kilogram of tomatoes requires 180 litres of water, while producing one kilogram of cotton requires 9,800 litres.
Rice and sugarcane require about 2,500 litres and 1,900 litres per kilogram, respectively.
Strategic Land-Use Planning
Proper land-use planning is a prerequisite for responsible development.
Clear zones for housing, agriculture, industry, and environmental protection must be defined.
Otherwise, fertile agricultural land will continue to disappear under unchecked urbanization, while marginalized areas are expected to sustain large-scale projects with little concern for feasibility.
Innovative Water Management
The potential of aquaculture and forestry needs to be explored.
They provide viable alternatives, particularly in degraded lands.
The brackish water in parts of Cholistan can be used strategically to grow crops that can thrive there, rather than dismissing it.
Options such as salt-tolerant crops and tree species, which can be harvested in six years for timber or biodiesel, are full of productivity.
Secondly, brackish water can be used for aquaculture and agroforestry.
This approach can prevent billions from being poured into unsustainable projects.
Moreover, the establishment of drip irrigation and sprinklers to utilize underground water deposits of the Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi rivers would be a more viable option than constructing canal systems in Cholistan and other desert areas.
Canal and flood irrigation techniques have already proved ineffective in the Rajasthan deserts of India.
Maximizing Existing Resources
Instead of moving ahead blindly, Pakistan should take a step back.
Existing irrigation systems can be enhanced within canal command areas.
If food security is the real concern behind corporate farming, improving existing irrigation methods is a comparatively more feasible path.
There is ample opportunity to optimize agronomic practices on already available land.
Instead of carving out new canals, the government needs to improve the efficiency of existing waterways.
Decision-makers are prioritizing costly infrastructure ventures instead of addressing the underlying issues within the existing system.
Political Dialogue, Confidence-Building, and Neutral Legal Authority
Provinces should be consulted, and all new canal projects must require approval from the Council of Common Interests.
In addition, the Indus River System Authority must be strengthened in terms of neutrality over interprovincial water distribution.
An independent authority that manages water sharing between provinces neutrally can significantly prevent social unrest.
Conclusion
It seems that history has failed to teach Pakistan lessons.
National-level disagreement is evident from past conflicts over the Greater Thal Canal, Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal, Kalabagh Dam proposal, and now the Cholistan Canal.
Such disharmony of interests among federating units further weakens national integration.
With Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan already in turmoil, growing unrest in Sindh, the country’s second-most populated province, would further complicate the situation for the centre.
The idea of developing Cholistan through irrigation canals dates back to 1919 but was rejected by the British because of the possibility of higher stakes.
Pakistan is a water-stressed country, yet it continues to mismanage its most precious resource.
For example, one scientific estimate shows that 62 million hectares, or 153 million acres, of Pakistan’s total 80 million hectares of land is vulnerable to desertification over the next few decades.
The Cholistan Canal initiative is not only opposed by Sindh, but its prospects for Punjab itself may also be low.
It seems unwise to allow Punjab’s most productive regions, such as Chaj Doab and Rachna Doab, to dry up just to irrigate a desert.
Therefore, to pursue necessary corporate farming, policymakers must reassess the prevailing national weaknesses and engage in inclusive decision-making.
This is essential to ensure sustainable agricultural growth on one hand and to keep federalism thriving on the other, making the nation stronger and able to flow together.